Samuel Jardine, geopolitical consultant and Head of Research at London Politica
AUTHOR: Daniel Mackisack
In the few weeks since we released our latest Briefing, ‘Geopolitical Thinking for Domestic Politics’, there have been a few new developments on the international stage.
Perhaps most significantly, although certainly not exclusively, the election of a new-ish President in the United States.
For anyone in the US, Europe, or elsewhere, elections and new leadership obviously mean change. However, that doesn’t stop at the border. There are global geopolitical ramifications.
And it’s not clear exactly what they’ll be. Change means uncertainty. It means risk.
Increasingly, what happens anywhere has an impact everywhere – not only in international or geopolitical terms, but also local, municipal, and regional as well.
Sometimes, for example, geopolitical developments can mean peace and safety concerns for local governments. They can affect security and cybersecurity partnerships or the considerations of small towns that lie close to borders and ongoing conflicts.
Local governments might even find themselves in the crosshairs of disinformation campaigns!
Geopolitics can affect trade, which can be extremely impactful for export-heavy regions, or have an economic effect on small businesses due to shifts in international relationships and events.
The increase or decrease in investment flow is another major factor that affects growth, revenue, budgets, employment and, therefore, political outcomes at all levels.
As we saw during the pandemic, preparedness and the flow of critical resources are affected by geopolitical developments. As is the flow of people, including refugees and migrants.
And let’s not forget the digital ecosystem, AI, social media, and international collaboration (or lack thereof) towards regulation.
Then there’s climate, the universal impact of which goes without saying.
In our latest briefing, historian and geopolitical risk consultant Samuel Jardine discusses these issues and more. The Briefing lays out the current state of play from a geopolitical perspective, what’s happening, what to consider and how to better incorporate geopolitical risk and analysis into political work at every level.
The unravelling and demystifying of complex interactions between developments at the international level and everywhere else can uncover significant risk. Consideration of that risk should be a vital part of all political work at all levels.
But risk isn’t the only thing to look out for.
Change, particularly difficult change that creates challenges, constraints, obstacles and even threats, necessitates creativity.
The greater the challenge, the greater the need to think differently.
For more on that, keep an eye out for our next Briefing.
